NFL Week 15 Odds Report-BURKE

[carlitosway]

NFL Week 15:​

We have less than a month left of the NFL regular season as Week 15 is here. Bye weeks have concluded and battered and bruised players are looking to do everything that they can and either win because of what it means in the standings or because of what it means in the pride category.
This week is headlined by a potential Super Bowl preview between the Bills and Lions, but that isn’t the only game of interest. Heck, every game has interest when betting is available.

Here is the Week 15 NFL Odds Report:​

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2, 48.5)​

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Speaking of battered and bruised, the 49ers shook off a litany of injuries to put a 38-13 beating on the Bears and rekindle their playoff hopes. The NFC West is very much up for grabs and the Thursday Night Football game is a big one after the Rams outlasted the Bills in a 44-42 slugfest.
A win over a team like Buffalo certainly tips the scales and we are seeing some love for the Rams, who were +3 last week on the lookahead numbers. There are no +3s out there as of Sunday night, but it is worth thinking about the fact that the 49ers had the game against the Bears mostly wrapped up by halftime and the Rams had to go the full 60 with the Bills. We’ll see where this line goes on a short week, but some shops are down to 1.5 already.

Washington Commanders (-7, 43.5) at New Orleans Saints​

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
The Saints improved to 3-1 under Darren Rizzi, but lost Derek Carr in the process during their win over the Giants. The Commanders were one of six teams on a bye last week, so they are well-rested heading into this week’s clash and now have pretty significant expectations in the Superdome. This was -3 in the lookahead markets and now has shot up to a touchdown. Jake Haener was dressed as the backup, while Spencer Rattler was not active, so it looks like the Fresno State and Washington product will make his first NFL start.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-2, 47)​

1 p.m. ET
It was not pretty at all, but the Dolphins beat the Jets on a walk-off touchdown in overtime to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Texans were another one of the bye week teams, so they are well-rested for the postseason push. I think most people will find that these two teams are not all that trustworthy and so I’ll be very interested in seeing where the money comes in. The Dolphins were mostly +2.5 in the market last week and have inched down slightly, probably a byproduct of the fact that this game really matters to them. Had they lost, their playoff probability would have been near zero and you wonder about the mindset at that point.

New York Jets (-3, 40) at Jacksonville Jaguars​

1 p.m. ET
A game only a mother could love, so to speak. The Jets actually had a much more valiant effort against the Dolphins than I anticipated, much to the chagrin of my -5.5 ticket in that game. Now the Jets have a good shot at a win against the Jaguars, but Jacksonville also stepped up to knock off the Titans in an ugly 10-3 affair. With the Jets officially eliminated and the season more than a throwaway, you do wonder if Aaron Rodgers keeps getting run out there. You also wonder if the Jets have any fire beyond the chance to play spoiler. This may also feel like a vacation, leaving chilly NYC for the Sunshine State. I have to be honest – as unpalatable as Jacksonville looks, I think this line does come down.

Baltimore Ravens (-14.5, 43.5) at New York Giants​

1 p.m. ET
The Ravens are another team that was idle last week and they’re laying a monster number against Drew Lock and the Giants. Baltimore is a two-touchdown road favorite. The last -14 road team we had was the 49ers in Week 17 of last season. They won 27-10. Before that, we had the Chiefs in Week 15 of the 2022 season. They won 30-24. Over the last 41 games, those teams are 37-4 straight up, but 22-17-2 ATS.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6, 43.5) at Cleveland Browns​

1 p.m. ET
Kevin Stefanski did not commit to using Jameis Winston this week against the Chiefs, as there is some incentive in seeing what Dorian Thompson-Robinson can actually provide. Can he be a backup at the NFL level? We don’t really know, but that seems like a question worth finding an answer to in what is a truly lost season. The tough part here, as it is for every Chiefs game, is that they seem to have no interest in winning by margin at any point in time. I think that makes this a tough handicap.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 43.5)​

4:25 p.m. ET
Revenge tasted sweet for the Steelers against the Browns in Week 14 and that strong performance coupled with a bit of a dud from the Eagles pushed this line down from 5 to 4.5. Philly was a Xavier Legette drop away from losing to the upstart Panthers, which really could have sent this line into a tailspin. It wasn’t a great spot for the Eagles off of a game against the Ravens with this Commonwealth Clash on deck, so I wouldn’t read too much into that one-off effort. Nevertheless, Mike Tomlin is quite good as an underdog and I’m sure that’ll be a talking point here.

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 53.5)​

4:25 p.m. ET
The potential Super Bowl preview is in the 4 p.m. window with the Bills and Lions at Ford Field. I’d say that this game is about a pick ‘em on a neutral with Detroit -2.5 for getting the game at home. Perhaps Buffalo’s loss to the Rams and the long trip back home coupled with the Lions on a little bit of extra rest is worth a half-point or a point to the number. The total is where we saw a bump on this game from the lookahead line, which was around 51.5. Makes sense given that the Bills game had 86 combined points and the Lions are scoring on most everybody.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-4.5, 43)​

4:25 p.m. ET
We have two well-rested teams here as both the Colts and the Broncos are off of byes, so there are no adjustments to really speak of with this number. DraftKings actually opened Denver -3.5 and got bet up to 4.5, while Superbook opened 5.5 and got bet down. So it looks like 4.5 is the sweet spot, at least for now.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 46.5)​

4:25 p.m. ET
The Chiefs somehow found a way to win yet again, but the Chargers covered. Justin Herbert got hurt in the game and there may be a little bit of question about his overall health as the week goes along. The Buccaneers did what they needed to do against the Raiders and Baker Mayfield threw for 295 yards on just 18 completions, so it seems like the offense continued humming along with Mike Evans in action. I think this is a fascinating game because I don’t think a lot of people like the Bucs much and many really like the Chargers, but here we are on the key number.

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 45)​

4:25 p.m. ET
The season seems to be slipping away from Arizona, as they’ve now dropped three straight and looked very inept offensively. The Patriots are off of the bye, so they’ve had some extra rest and prep time for the trip out to the desert. New England’s offensive line woes are the story for all of their games, but the Cardinals had zero sacks last week against Geno Smith. They had nine sacks the two previous weeks, so maybe that was just an outlier. Either way, this line was expected to be 7 and is now 6.5 for whatever that’s worth.

Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 47) at Seattle Seahawks​

8:20 p.m. ET
Sunday Night Football takes place in the Pacific Northwest with a surging Seahawks squad against a Packers team that a lot of people like quite a bit. So much so that Green Bay is lined as a clear road favorite here. Even though the Packers lost to the Lions and the Seahawks once again suffocated the Cardinals, we didn’t see an adjustment to this number. The Packers did have a game effort against the Lions and are on some extra rest, but I think we could see this line go down.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 43.5)​

Monday, 8 p.m. ET
The complete no-show from Chicago definitely caused an adjustment to this line, as the Vikings are as high as 7 at some shops heading into Monday morning. Minnesota also looked good against the Falcons, pulling away late in the game. The Bears have very little to play for at this point and Minnesota has a lot to play for, so I think this is a line that does go to 7 market-wide and maybe even touch 7.5 at some places.

Atlanta Falcons (-4.5, 43.5) at Las Vegas Raiders​

8:30 p.m. ET
This is a really ugly MNF game. Laying a road number with the Falcons seems really scary, but they’ll see old friend Desmond Ridder after Aidan O’Connell was lost for the season. Kirk Cousins looks washed and that’s definitely a problem, but the Falcons are getting a Raiders team that is poorly coached and now on their third-string QB. This line was bumped from -3.5 to -4.5 as a result.